Now that a relative lull has been reached in the hurricane otherwise known as Donald Trump 2016 it is a good time to really take a look at Trump’s actual chances to make a push for the Republican nomination, and ultimately, the White House. Based on everything I have seen thus far, I believe the race is Trump’s to lose, and doubt any other candidate can, on their own, take back the initiative. With the exception of Jeb Bush, it seems at this point the rest of the GOP field is running for Vice President at best.
The challenges facing Trump are many, and the ones of his own making have proven to be the most damaging, but he has been able to successfully navigate the course thus far and there is no reason not to believe he will get better and sharper as time goes on. First was his “indelicate” remarks made in his announcement speechregarding illegal immigration, which predictably resulted in wide condemnation and rebukes from almost everyone.
This highlights one of the most challenging things Trump will face going forward: an opportunistic and largely controversy driven press. The speech itself was actually a pretty close preview of what would become Trump’s stump speech, and demonstrated that his personal style—speaking completely off the cuff without a TelePrompter or even prepared notes—goes against the grain of what people are used to seeing from the professional political class. In fact Ivanka warned in the introduction that Trump was “The opposite of Politically Correct”.
In the aftermath of the speech it was the press who disseminated and parsed the statements made by Trump and drummed up what would become the popular talking points used and abused by opponents to bludgeon his reputation. Take for example the now famous statement, said in full length:
“These aren’t the best and the finest. When Mexico sends it’s people their not sending their best. Their sending people who have lots of problems, and they are bringing those problems with us. Their bringing drugs, their bringing crime, their rapists. And some, I assume are good people. But I speak to Border Guards and they tell us what we’re getting. It only makes common sense. They sending us not the right people. Its coming from more than Mexico. Its coming from all over South and Latin America and its coming probably from the Middle East, but we don’t know because we have no protection and we have no competence. We don’t know what’s happening and it’s got to stop. It’s got to stop fast.”
This statement of course was boiled down to a small sound bite, perfect for superficial consumption and dissemination via all forms of media, perfect to try and make the image of Trump become, overnight, that of a xenophobe, a racist, or worse. What helps in this manner is that most people take at face value what they read or see via the news media and do not look into things very much deeper. I spent a full weekend watching the nine or ten nearly hour long speeches that were then existent since Trump’s announcement and I became enthralled with his full “platform” of ideas. I encourage anyone skeptical to spend the time to actually watch a full speech.
The lines that get the biggest reactions from the crowds he is bringing in at all venues are those that decry the lack of competency displayed by the professional political class. He credits this lack of competency in our failures to secure our borders, to negotiate good trade deals, to deal effectively with rivals and threats like China, Russia, Iran and ISIS, and to resolve the structural issues with the VA and IRS.
“How stupid are our leaders? How stupid are these politicians to allow this to happen? How stupid are they?”
“I’m a free trader. The problem with free trade is you need really talented people to negotiate for you. If you don’t have talented people, if you don’t have great leadership, if you don’t have people who know business and not just a political hack who got the job because he made a contribution to a campaign, which is the way all jobs, just about, are gotten. Free trade is terrible. Free trade can be wonderful if you have smart people. But we have people who are stupid. We have people who are not smart and we have people who are controlled by special interests.”
And before the media and late-night comics could marginalize Trump completely, headlines began to justify some of the things he had been saying. A wave of crimescarried out by illegal immigrants, some of which had been deported multiple times, reignited the debate around border security and sanctuary cities. The Iran Nuclear Deal negotiations were completed and all indications seem to show that the Obama Administration got taken for a ride by the Iranians. The Trans-Pacific Partnership is nearing the end of negotiations, and the Trade in Services Agreement and Trans-Atlantic Agreement will be soon to follow, and questions abound whether these will be disasters echoing 1994’s NAFTA and the more recent trade deals with South Korea and Colombia.
Instead of turning Trump into a mockery, the media firestorm instead got Trump so much publicity, got his name out to so many people so fast, that within just a few weeks he was on top of the GOP polls. His events are overflowing with attendees, and his message has proven the best efforts of the media to discredit of little consequence. Gaffes he has made, such as seeming to disparage Senator John McCain’s war record and releasing Senator Lindsey Graham’s personal cell phone number have not dented his popularity. A hashtag, #WhenTrumpIsElected, trended for a while on July 27, featuring both humorous hot takes and serious speculation by detractors and supporters.
The next hurdle for Trump will be the August 6 GOP debate, featuring the top 10 polling as of August 4, in Cleveland, Ohio, of which he is certain to be included as the rules stand now. While some in the GOP Establishment are seeking ways to toss Trump from the race, if not the party, and Opposition Research firms no doubt comb through his very public life over the last almost 40 years, all Trump needs to do is keep on keeping on with what is working for him now. The more that his rivals and the media pile on trying to demonize him, themore popular he becomes.
In the end the greatest asset Donald Trump has that sets him apart from all other candidates of both parties, save perhaps Bernie Sanders, is that while the other candidates want to raise $1Billion of other people’s money to get a job that pays $400,000 a year, Trump is willing to spend $1Billion of his own money to win the very same job. He earned a little more than $216million in his time with The Apprentice and turned down a new season to run. What is any other candidate sacrificing to become President?
Unlike some of the other candidates, and quite probably our current President, no one would ever be concerned Trump is not President solely for what he could do for the country, rather than what the office can do for him. Anyone who concerns themselves primarily about the “historical nature” of their presidency or the “legacy” of their “achievements” is not worrying about the right things.
In the end it doesn’t matter if The Economistthinks Trump can win. It only matters how many Americans think he would be a better President than Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush.
Originally published at Politicist on July 29, 2015.